Strong performance by its US subsidiary Novelis and better returns in the copper business helped Hindalco Industries post consolidated revenue growth of 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54,100 crore in the July-September quarter of 2023-23 (Q2FY24). Novelis' Flat Rolled Products (FRP) volumes grew 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 933,000 tonnes (down 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on better North American and European volumes. The consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,610 crore despite lower input costs in India and better Novelis performance.
'China is struggling to get out of its property bubble.' 'Japan took 35 years to walk out of its equity bubble.' 'Bubbles can be difficult to forecast.'
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Shares of paint companies faced pressure, falling up to 5 per cent on the BSE in Monday's (February 26) intraday trade amid concerns that Grasim Industries' entry into the paint sector will intensify the competition. Asian Paints reached a 10-month low of Rs 2,850, slipping nearly 5 per cent after brokerage firm CLSA downgraded the stock following the Birla Opus launch. The paint maker's stock traded at its lowest level since April 28, 2023.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 12 per cent rise in December quarter net profit on improving oil-to-chemical business, strong continued momentum in retail and steady telecom unit Jio.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
Given wild swings, investors are wondering where the metal market is going. There was a strong uptrend in industrial metal through much of the last three years due to fears of supply chain issues - first due to Covid-19 and then due to the Ukraine War. That uptrend broke down as it became apparent that global growth would moderate as inflation rose and Western Europe (the EU plus the UK) went into a near-recession and China was in a rolling lockdown.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
With sales of cooling products turning out dismal this summer due to unseasonal rains, the stocks of related companies are now off their March highs. Shares of fan and air conditioner makers such as Voltas, Symphony, Orient Electric, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning and Crompton Greaves are down 5-23 per cent since March when the summer season saw a firm onset. In comparison, the BSE Sensex index is up 10 per cent.
Gold zoomed by Rs 425 to Rs 31,150 per ten grams in the national capital today on frantic buying by stockists and investors on strong global cues.
Gold prices hit record high in the third week of March as fears of bank collapses and high inflation led investors to the traditional safe haven. Gold prices are often inversely correlated to dollar strength because the international price is dollar-denominated. The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) stance indicates that the dollar may appreciate further since it is prepared to keep pushing up policy rates. But demand for gold is also up - the World Gold Council claims central banks are buying in addition to private demand.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies hit an all-time high of Rs 337.67 lakh crore ($4 trillion) on Friday amid a rally in equities, mainly on account of favourable macroeconomic data and continuous foreign fund inflows. Rising for the fourth straight day, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 492.75 points or 0.74 per cent to settle at 67,481.19 points. During the day, it rallied 575.89 points or 0.85 per cent to 67,564.33 points.
The stock has gained over 10 per cent in the last month but it could still have an upside, with valuations between Rs 5,200 and Rs 5,700 from several analysts and strong 'buy' consensus.
The automobile sector has started seeing volume growth, the crucial economy segment included. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) could be a big beneficiary as the country's largest passenger vehicle (PV) maker has seen several favourable developments including volume recovery. Demand for its new sports utility vehicles (SUVs) appears to be good, and the company has 4 lakh outstanding orders by April 2023, (up from 3.6 lakhs in January 2023). Siam (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) estimates that passenger vehicle demand would grow by 5-7 per cent in the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and MSIL is likely to beat the market growth.
Joe Foster spoke recently with Mike Norman about the rising price of Gold and presented his analysis of the Gold market.
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
The rupee had gained five paise to close at 63.25 against the dollar in on Monday's trade on fresh selling of the US currency by exporters amid bullish stocks.
After underperforming its peers in the consumer space in 2022-23, and experiencing a mixed bag in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1), brokerages are positive about the medium-term outlook for liquor stocks. Higher raw material costs, concerns regarding increased duties, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures weighed on performance returns in the past quarters. Analysts believe that the sector could experience a reversal of fortunes due to better demand and margin improvements.
ITC's results for the January-March quarter (Q4) were strong, with robust growth in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment and a good performance in hospitality. The tobacco division's performance was on expected lines, with double-digit volume growth, helped by reclaiming of market share from the smuggled trade. There was 60 per cent growth in non-cigarette earnings before interest and tax (Ebit), despite a relatively weak performance in paperboards.
Saudi Arabia's deep pockets and a strong financial system could help the country to ride out a low-price environment in order to protect its market share.
Ola Electric, India's largest maker of electric scooters, launched its most affordable ride on Tuesday, in an attempt to woo more customers and expand its electric two-wheeler lineup.
Following a strong performance in the 2022-23 January-March quarter, publicly listed paint industry giants displayed a mixed performance in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. While Berger Paints India outperformed its peers and reported results in line with expectations, market leader Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac Paints fell slightly short of expectations.
Indian gold demand seen falling to 8-year low in festive quarter.
Grasim Industries has announced a rights issue of around Rs 4,000 crore with the promoters committed to fully subscribing to their entitlements and to covering any unsubscribed portion. This is to part-fund capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 10,000 crore in a new foray into the paints business. The company has already invested Rs 3,640 crore in the paints business (by Q1FY24). The management has outlined a capex of Rs 5,700 crore for FY24, which includes Rs 4,280 crore allocated for the paints business, of which Rs 1,050 crore has already been spent in Q1FY24.
10 high dividend paying stocks across sectors that are expected to maintain or even increase their pay-outs in FY23 thanks to faster earnings growth in the last four quarters.
Amid cooling raw material prices, the crude-oil linked companies, which includes paint and tyre firms, have been on a roll over the past one year. Shares of related companies have gained up to 84 per cent, as against a 14 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Analysts, however, believe stretched valuations in both these sectors could trigger a de-rating.
Notwithstanding expectations of a pick-up in construction activity during a seasonally strong January-March quarter (fourth quarter) of 2022-23 (FY23), analysts are cautiously optimistic about the building material sector - encompassing paints, pipes, wood panels, tiles, metals, and cement - as volatile input costs, coupled with fears of a global slowdown, are making demand projections uncertain. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors stay selective and pick stocks of companies with stronger brand recall, expanding distribution network, diversified product profile, healthier balance sheet, and sustainable cash flow. "The government's various proposals under Budget 2023-24 (FY24) may lead to the building material segment growing between 8 per cent and 12 per cent for the next five years.
High net worth individuals (HNIs) are considered more investment-savvy than retail investors.
'Chasing sectors which have reported strongest earnings is not always the right strategy for outperformance.'
'Investors should hold equity assets for 3 to 5 years.'
Stocks of defence-related companies have been firing on all cylinders on the bourses in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Bharat Electronics (BEL), Bharat Dynamics (BDL), Data Patterns, MTAR Tech, Cochin Shipyard and GRSE have rallied in the range of 21-96 per cent so far this year. By comparison, the BSE Sensex is up 8 per cent. The gains have been sustained on the back of robust export opportunities, a healthy project pipeline and the government's continued push for local manufacturing and indigenisation of defence equipment.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Capital goods companies in their Q2FY24 results are expected to report another steady quarter of earnings growth as order inflows and execution remain healthy, according to analysts. An upward revision in order inflow targets and a margin improvement due to lower raw material costs are also anticipated. "We expect the execution of all capital goods companies and most EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) companies to remain healthy Y-o-Y (year-on-year), led by strong order book accretion in the past 5-6 quarters," wrote analysts at Kotak Securities in a note, estimating revenue growth of 32 per cent for India's largest company in the capital goods space -- Larsen & Toubro.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
Starting with the third quarter of financial year 2020-21 (Q3FY21), we have seen "unlock" trades at various times. Whenever lockdowns have been eased, traders have taken long positions in consumer-facing businesses. Let's look at the logic. Since March 2020, sectors like retail, personal vehicles, hospitality, aviation, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), multiplexes, etc., have been under severe pressure. As a result, there's been a low base effect. Every company in these spaces has suffered top line contraction. Many suffered losses, especially in the first half of FY21.
Mid-caps in cyclical sectors such as cement, financials and capital goods estimated to earn much more
